CCA FLORIDA COMMENTS
on
FWC MANATEE POPULATION SCENARIOS
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IMPACTS OF ASSUMPTIONS AND VARIABLES CHOSEN FOR COMPUTER SIMULATIONS

As a fish and wildlife agency responsible for the management of imperiled species the FWC should err on the side of conservation. The use of some conservative estimates is appropriate. However, the cumulative impact of being excessively conservative and often redundant throughout the model and in a majority of the simulations results in major biases that drive the simulated populations into a more imperiled category.
ASSUMPTION / VARIABLE IMPACT ON IMPERILED STATUS: BETTER / WORSE

1. Using minimum synoptic count of 3,276 (an undercount) as initial population size

 Worse

2. Using survival rates based on scar catalog a process which underestimates survival rate

 Worse

3. Adding catastrophes which are already a factor in existing survival rates

 Worse

4. Adding catastrophes in 15 of the 16 scenarios

 Worse

5. Projecting immediate declines in survivorship of .10 and .05 percent

 Worse

6. Using those immediate survivorship declines in 9 of the 16 scenarios

 Worse

7. Using PVA model with variables that constrain population growth rate to less than known growth rates

 Worse

8. Setting a minimum 50% decline in carrying capacity in 12 of the 16 scenarios

 Worse

9. Setting carrying capacity to decline by 50% in 6 of the 16 scenarios and by 75% in another 6 of the 16 scenarios

 Worse

10. Adding a new “risk factor” to analysis which allows criteria to be achieved when only 10% or 20% of simulations actually meet the criteria

 Worse
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Phone: (407) 854-7002 • Fax: (407) 854-1766
e-mail: Marcia Dunfee
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Phone: (850) 224-3474 • Fax: (850) 224-5199
e-mail: Amy Harllee
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